The news this week is pretty dire. On the heels of the US Government’s bailout of Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and AIG Financial, stock markets in the US, Russia, Japan and elsewhere are suffering tremendous losses. The NYTimes paints a linkbait-worthy, interactive picture of the financial industry’s collapse. If you’re anything like me, this news brings on some anxiety and fear – neither of which are good for startup businesses or those seeking to grow. Thus, I figured it would be worthwhile to give a brief synopsis, discuss the causes and symptoms and make some predictions and suggestions for the search industry and those in online marketing on how to weather and even prosper in the upcoming storm.
First, there’s a number of items causing the turmoil:
- Subprime Mortgage Crisis – This BBC interactive graphic piece does a good job explaining the problem, but in essence, lenders discovered that by leveraging the bond market, they could issue loans to far less credit-worthy borrowers at higher, variable-interest rates. With far more people able to afford mortgages, housing prices continued to rise from their already high levels in the early 2000s. From there, the path was obvious. Interest rates and foreclosures went up (due to both the insolvency of some less-than-ideal borrowers and the rise in variable interest rate loans), making houses unaffordable. Defaults led to price drops, which led to more homeowners finding the price of their mortgages higher than the value of their homes and walking away. This spiral led to even more price falls and defaults, which eventually took their toll on the investors in the subprime mortgage bonds (and the banks that issued them).
- Gas & Energy Prices – High oil prices stem (most probably) from rising demand in emerging economies, middle-east conflicts, natural disasters and an enormous increase in speculation about so-called “peak oil” (the point at which Earth’s accessible oil supplies start to dwindle).
- Inflation – Gas prices impact an incredible range of goods and services, including virtually any product requiring transportation. Higher oil prices also drive up energy prices, which cause a rise in consumer and business costs across the board.
- Bankruptcies/Insolvencies of Financial Sector Firms – The events surrounding Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, Lehman Brothers, AIG and Merril Lynch all contributed to the last 7 days of upheaval that resulted in an extreme confidence drain on investors.
Second, there’s the immediate results on Wall Street and other trading markets worldwide:
- On Monday, September 8, the Dow Jones Industrial Average sat at 11,510. As of Wednesday the 18th, it had fallen to 10,609, a loss of 9.2%.
- Traders rushed to buy “safe” investments like gold and Treasury Bonds, despite the extremely low rates of return on these vehicles.
- Russia’s Micex index fell 25% (and lost $425 billion USD in value) in what’s being called the “biggest financial crisis since the default of 1998.”
- Asian markets suffered tremendously as well, from Australia to Japan to Hong Kong and beyond.
Third, there’s the longer term issues that arise when stock markets plunge and investment capital turns risk-averse. Sadly, the confidence (or lack thereof) of investors often turns into a domino-like effect:
- A Higher Cost of Capital – Lending rates will rise to account for the greater riskiness, meaning capital will be less available to grease the wheels on financial transactions of all types.
- Lowered Investment in Businesses – Business owners and investors will reduce their inputs, meaning business opportunities will go un-exploited due to potential riskiness. Startups will have a tougher time getting funded and those who own companies will be less likely to expand or make significant purchases.
- Job & Wage Cuts – As companies look at ways to save, they’ll inevitably hit on employment, causing a rise in unemployment. This has the added impact of further damaging the economy as those without jobs will contribute far less to the economy as a whole.
- Higher Borrowing Costs – In addition to making private ventures more costly, this will have an extra impact on the already suffering housing market and probably hurt the economic picture even further.
- Lower Spending by Consumers – When investors and businesses tighten their belts, consumers almost always follow. Once again, with consumer spending dominating economic activity, particularly in a rough housing market, this is sure to incite further declines in the world’s economic forecast.
If the outlook sounds grim, that’s because it is. Many of the financial analysts you’ll see in the media are parroting similar lines – they’ve never seen it this bad before. Of course, that kind of quote makes its way into nearly every media article on financial downfalls; it makes for a more dire piece that way, and the financial media feeds off bad news (case-in-point: WSJ’s soaring traffic over the last week).
What about the Internet/Search World?
There’s some good news here. Tech stocks have not been hammered the same way those in the financial sector have. Google, Yahoo!, Microsoft, Apple, IBM and other mainstays are actually surprisingly cash-rich, and have fairly solid fundamentals. The online ad market may be weakening, but the trend towards greater Internet usage is accelerating at a tremendous pace in the developing world (and Google’s lending a helping hand there) as well as continuing a slower but visible rise in developed nations.
There’s a number of factors that make me believe, personally, that the Internet is actually a very good place to ride out this type of a storm:
- Web businesses in general have virtually no connections to the real estate / financial markets directly (though they certainly can be impacted by general market downfalls caused by the recent insolvencies).
- Web adoption is rising around the world (though it has tapered off slightly in the US), and broadband continues to drive increases in usage.
- Higher gas prices make using the web a more attractive alternative activity.
- A downturned economy means more people seeking bargains, and the web has become the best resource for that pursuit. Price sensitivity and web usage have been linked in the past, and I suspect that trend will continue.
- The generations emerging as the majority of the workforce will soon be digital natives and this spells tremendous new opportunities for the web as an economic force.
- Search demand isn’t dropping. Just because investors are running scared and buying gold, silver and t-bills doesn’t mean the world’s digital population is going to stop performing searches. There might be less discretionary spending, but my guess is that such a larger fraction of it will be performed online in the years to come that it will outweigh the potentially lower conversion rates.
- SEOmoz’s own conversions haven’t dipped at all in the market turmoil, suggesting that folks are turning to SEO and finding value. In fact, cancellations of PRO memberships have actually dropped as well. Granted, this is hardly a macro symbol of the online marketing world, but it does suggest that businesses continue to allocate budgets towards SEO. We’ve also gotten a solid number of requests for consulting work, adding further credence to this prediction.
Recommendations of Internet Marketers and Web Startups
I’m certainly no seer, but I do have a bit of experience in this field. From 2001-2003, Gillian and I weathered an ugly storm of a downturned economic climate, lack of investment opportunities and a market that generally despised anything “dot com,” and yet managed to build a successful company from the ashes. I’ll share my best suggestions below:
- Snap Up Cheap Talent – if the job market does turn south, that spells opportunity to grab some great people, often at less exorbitant salaries than in an up-tempo economy. Some smart startups in NYC are already jumping on the tech talent lost in the last week.
- Invest in Easy-to-Test, High ROI Projects – Rather than taking the “let’s sit this one out” approach, I’d suggest taking a slightly riskier route and investing in projects where you can quickly and easily determine potential ROI. Stagnation is not only bad for business, it’s bad for the economy as a whole, and those who generally come out on top in business as a whole are the same ones with the guts and brains to invest in smart projects when times are tough.
- Market in Trackable Ways – Networking can be tough to measure, as can brand marketing, TV ads, print media and other non-electronic forms of advertising. If you’re going to cut back, do so in these arenas and re-invest somewhere you can watch your money grow in exceptional detail… like SEO, PPC, e-mail marketing and web advertising. With every click tracked, you’ll know exactly what you’re spending and how much it’s earning you.
- Watch Your Burn Rate – With investment and even credit hard to come by, it’s a good time to review the soundness of your financial picture and outlook. Check your balance sheet and cash flow statements and be sure you can weather 6-12 bad months. If you can’t, you’ve got two options – invest in growing quickly or find ways to cut expenses. The former may seem riskier, but if done right, it’s much more appealing and potentially smarter than trimming budgets and people (as you’re often also cutting into sales when you scale back).
- Make Sure Your Business is Your Passion – This is always true, but in times of economic turmoil when you might have to work longer, harder hours and miss out on some of life’s luxuries, the best cure is to love what you do. Chris Anderson even gives you a better shot at succeeding than the pros 🙂
- Start Your Own Business – The ease with which anyone can start an online business makes it an incredibly attractive prospect, and if you’re reading SEOmoz, you probably already know a hundred ways to earn a living off the web. Find your niche and dive in – it’s a surprisingly low cost investment, even if it doesn’t work out.
Looking forward to hearing from you about how you plan to weather the stock market storm on the web.
p.s. I’m taking a few extra days off after my wedding last weekend, but should be back to more regular contributions on the site on Wednesday the 24th.
